Why the U.S. Plan to Sideline Hamas in Post-war Gaza Is Doomed - Opinion - Haaretz.com
The United States reportedly has a plan to "revitalize" the beleaguered Palestinian Authority with hopes that it could breathe new life – and legitimacy – into it both in the West Bank and for governing a post-war Gaza Strip as well.
So far, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayeh has declared the first phase of implementing wide-ranging reforms across its government. Add to that a secret meeting reportedly held recently with top Saudi, Egyptian, Jordanian and Palestinian Authority (PA) national security officials talking about how to make this vision possible.
But the American plan faces significant hurdles, perhaps foremost Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's refusal to allow the PA – which was expelled from the Gaza Strip by Hamas in 2007 – to return there once the Israel-Hamas war, now in its fourth bitter month, comes to an end.
For the past 17 years, mostly under Netanyahu's watch, Israel has consistently worked to prevent the political reunification of Gaza and the West Bank, preferring a divided leadership that is weaker for not being able to represent a unified front.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he boards a plane Sunday at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, en route to Saudi Arabia as part of his fifth urgent trip to the Middle East since the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza erupted in October.Credit: Mark Schiefelbein /AP
If the U.S. pressures Netanyahu to respond to their plan to rehabilitate the PA, he will likely procrastinate until the end of the U.S. presidential election in November 2024 when he is likely hoping Joe Biden will be voted out by Donald Trump.
Another obstacle to the plan is the very real possibility that Israel does not "win" the war in the Gaza Strip, and that Hamas's political and military presence there continues. Almost four months into the war, Israel's declared goals of uprooting Hamas in wake of the brutal Hamas October 7 invasion, are unlikely to be achieved. Hamas is still fighting and negotiating with Israel regarding a prisoner swap.
Even if we assume that Hamas has been weakened militarily; the fact is that it will remain a prominent political player in the local and regional arenas, just as the Palestine Liberation Organization did after being disarmed in the 1982 Lebanon War. After 11 years of the Lebanon war, Israel signed the Oslo Accords with the PLO, which led to the establishment of the Palestinian Authority.
In a recent public opinion poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR), some 90 percent of respondents were in favor of the resignation of PA President Mahmoud Abbas, and 60 percent called for the dismantling of the PA itself. Nevertheless, the U.S. is still backing the PA, but with revamping it to resolve its legitimacy problem. Even if this effort succeeds, it is unlikely a new iteration of the PA would be sustainable.
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar speaks at a rally in Gaza City in 2022.Credit: IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA/ REUTERS
The Fatah movement, along with Arab countries active in the Palestinian affairs and the US, will not risk holding presidential and legislative elections in the West Bank and Gaza Strip because Hamas, which will remain a significant force in local politics will likely win due to its high popularity among Palestinians because of what many see as its strong resistance against Israeli troops in Gaza battles.
Speaking to the American approach to the day after the Gaza war ends, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller announced in December that "reforming and revitalizing the PA is the path to move towards unifying and governing the West Bank and Gaza Strip because the Authority is currently in a position that cannot manage it and is not able to provide security guarantees to Gaza".
The challenges ahead for the PA, considered a corrupt, highly unpopular relic of the failed Oslo peace talks by many Palestinians are steep.
Palestinian children wait to receive food cooked by a charity kitchen amid shortages of food supplies, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, on Monday.Credit: IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA/ REUTERS
Another thing to factor in: this American plan to essentially rescue a drowning PA, will not endure if PA President Mahmoud Abbas dies or becomes too ill to carry out his duties. In that case, what will happen? The Fatah movement, which is the ruling party of the Palestinian Authority, is plagued by deep crises and competition among its top leaders to succeed Abbas. Tensions are so high there that a power struggle could potentially even lead to an internal armed conflict. In such a scenario, Hamas, with its overwhelming popularity after the war in Gaza, will fill the void.
It's also important to note that America stepped in with this plan when it became clear the Arab states were not planning to help in the administration of Gaza after the war. The Biden administration, its eye on reelection, is also hoping to reassure Arab and Muslim voters in the United States that it is working to ensure that Israel does not permanently occupy the Gaza Strip.
But Hamas will reject any plan to which it is not party. It will likely ally with leaders who defected from the Fatah movement, such as Muhammad Dahlan and Nasser al-Qudwa, to form a post-war entity that it might not be officially part of, but will still be very much influencing as its backseat driver.
Nabhan Khraishi is the Washington based Radio Sawa West Bank Reporter based in Ramallah, the West Bank.